In America,
(a) there are 10 billion livestock animals and about 330 million humans,
which is to say that
(b) almost all Americans who are alive at this moment (>97% of the population) will soon be brutally killed so that members of the dominant human class (<3% of the population) can make meals of their bodies.
What we are doing to the animals in our care is horrifically unjust, and obviously so. Outside observers (say, time travelers from the distant future) would be surprised that we have been doing this for so long and have no plan to stop.
Carnism's stubborn persistence is mysterious. There was a time when it might've made sense to say that (i) carnism is an American tradition and (ii) the American people are very strongly attached to their traditions. But (ii) seems no longer true, if it ever was. For example, Americans with voting privileges seem not to care very much anymore about preserving America's traditional system of government. Broadly, America seems to think of itself as very open to "change" in the present moment, so one might think that a shift away from our catastrophically wrong system of animal agriculture would at least be under consideration, but (except in rare quarters) it is not.
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When you are considering whether to do something to somone, the first question to ask is often this: How well off would they be if I were to proceed, and how well off would they be if I were to refrain? This is the counterfactual welfare question.
For example, suppose you are considering whether to take your sick dog to the vet. You might first think about whether your dog will be better off if you do this than if you don't. If you determine that they'll be better off if you take them to the vet, then that will usually look like a reason to take them to the vet. And once you've got that reason in front of you, your next step should normally be to ask whether that reason is decisive.
By contrast, when you are considering whether to bring someone into existence, the counterfactual welfare question can't be usefully asked. For example, suppose you are considering whether to have a child. You can meaningfully ask how well off the child will be if you choose to bring them into existence. But you cannot meaningfully ask how well off they will be if you choose not to do so. The latter question is a nonsense question, like asking your calculator to divide zero by zero.
This is what I'm calling the procreation muddle. When we approach moral problems concerning bringing others into existence, we cannot ask the counterfactual welfare question, which (I'm suggesting) is the first question we would normally want to ask when making a decision about whether to do something to someone; so we might not see how to even get started with such problems, i.e., we may find ourselves muddled.
Philosophers have proposed and considered a bunch of different ideas about how we might unmuddle ourselves with regard to these sorts of procreation problems. In my book project with Rob, we'll have a new unmuddling strategy to offer.
My point here is only that people can find themselves muddled like this. I'm not saying there's no way out of the muddle (I feel sure there is a way) nor am I saying that people always (or ever) need philosophers' help to get unmuddled. After all, people do manage, somehow, to decide whether and when to have children, and people often seem able to engage in moral reasoning about such decisions.
***
If you are at the grocery store and you have to decide whether to buy a pound of chicken or a pound of tofu, you might find yourself in a procreation muddle.
You're aware, of course, that the pound of chicken meat in front of you is an animal's body. And you may consider it likely that that animal died horribly. But the animal is already dead. Buying a pound of their flesh won't change that.
You might just stop your thinking at that point, and buy the chicken meat without any further moral thought. Or you might continue.
It might occur to you that purchasing decisions that you make today could influence producers' decisions in the future. In particular, purchasing chicken meat might cause economic demand for chicken to rise, which might cause producers to raise more chickens than they would do otherwise. In that case, your decision to purchase a pound of chicken would cause some number of chickens who otherwise wouldn't exist at all to be brought into existence, live for a while, and then finally be killed.
Via economic channels of supply and demand, your purchase causes, or has some chance of causing, some number of animals who otherwise wouldn't exist to be born. So, purchasing a pound of chicken is, in effect, a procreative act. If you see the matter in that way, you may decide: It's okay for me to buy that pound of chicken if, and only if, it's okay for me to cause chickens who otherwise wouldn't exist at all to come into existence. Having got that far, your next step will or ought to be to ask whether, and under what circumstances, it's okay to cause chickens to come into existence.
This is the point where you might find yourself in a procreation muddle. You might find yourself unable to meaningfully ask whether those future chickens will be better off or worse off than they'd be if you didn't bring about their existence; so you might not see how to even get started in wrestling with the question of whether a choice that causes them to exist is right or wrong.
***
Consider the following psychological hypothesis:
Carnism persists because people are procreation-muddled: When people consider the moral problem about whether it's okay to purchase animal products, they soon encounter a procreation muddle, and they don't see how to get out of it, so they just abandon (rather than continue trying to answer) the moral problem. And in this situation, without having reached any clear moral judgment that purchasing animal products isn't okay, they default to what they're accustomed to, which is to just keep eating animals.
I think something like this might really be what is going on in the heads of many ordinary people.
If this hypothesis is true, or if there is a good chance that it is true, then that might mean that anti-carnist public argumentation should center consumers' causal responsibility for farmed animals' existence, and should explore, and try to clarify, the moral dimensions of that causal responsibility.